NATION, Page 24Is Los Angeles Next?Southern California finds flaws in its plans for the Big OneBy Frank Trippett/Reported by Jeanne McDowell/Los Angeles andJ. Madeleine Nash/Chicago
San Francisco may have established itself as the earthquake
capital of the U.S., but seismologists have long warned that Los
Angeles is the more vulnerable city. Because Los Angeles has not
suffered a massive tremor in this century and has a much larger
population, a major quake could result in far greater devastation.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates that an 8.3
magnitude temblor (16 times as powerful as the one that hit San
Francisco) on the southern San Andreas fault near Los Angeles could
cause $17 billion in property damage and between 3,000 and 14,000
deaths.
Galvanized by the fear that they may be next, Southern
Californians are urgently reassessing their plans for coping with
the Big One. "What was foremost in many people's minds," says
filmmaker Gina Blumenfeld, "was the fact that the San Francisco
quake could have just as easily happened here." Residents stocked
their homes with bottled water, canned food, batteries and
first-aid supplies, snapped up wrenches to turn off the gas and
prepacked earthquake kits that sell for $30 to $210. Some of the
preparations had an only-in-Hollywood quality. One woman whose
emergency gear includes a butane curling iron says she is looking
for a battery-operated hair dryer that can be used if electricity
is knocked out. "Why look a mess even in a crisis?" she teases.
Experts are unnervingly in agreement that Los Angeles is
overdue for a catastrophic shaking. "We feel there is a 60%
probability for an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 or larger
some time in the next 30 years," says James H. Dieterich, a
geophysicist for the U.S. Geological Survey. Last year the survey
reported that the Los Angeles area overlies three fault segments,
any of which is capable of producing an enormous quake. Since 1857,
when a monster measuring 8.3 on the Richter scale strewed
destruction from the Cholame Valley in central California to the
Cajon Pass near San Bernardino, Los Angeles has experienced a
succession of lesser tremors. Six quakes of at least 4.5 magnitude
have been registered in the past two years, and some geologists
suspect those rumblings are the prelude to a cataclysm.
The region has long been aware of its special vulnerabilities.
Its water comes in by aqueducts that a big quake would fracture.
Like the devastated Marina district in San Francisco, parts of
coastal communities such as Marina Del Rey, Venice and Long Beach
are built on sandy soil and landfill that could liquefy during a
temblor, amplifying its destructive impact. State transportation
officials last week handed the city council a list of 48 highway
bridges and overpasses that need reinforcement to withstand a
powerful quake. Cost: $32 million. Los Angeles' city engineer
Robert Horii informed the city council that $100 million worth of
shoring up may be required on the city's bridges and viaducts. Said
Horii: "I didn't believe the urgency was there until what happened
last week." Pointing to the collapse of Oakland's Interstate 880,
some officials questioned whether an elevated section of the Harbor
Freeway should be built; state transportation officials asked for
an investigation to review the freeway plans.
In 1981 the city set tough standards for strengthening
unreinforced masonry buildings constructed before 1933. Work has
been done or begun on 4,000 such buildings, but 2,400 remain
unrepaired. Mayor Tom Bradley acknowledged last week that the city
has moved too slowly to demand compliance, and other officials
vowed to pressure owners to speed up the work. Said Councilman Hal
Bernson, author of the 1981 law: "If the money's available and they
are not willing to do the work, then we as a city are going to have
to step in and take control."
Los Angeles has developed a detailed "emergency operations
master plan," specifying how various city agencies should respond
to a quake. In the event of a disaster, the mayor and police
chief would take charge from a strongly constructed operations
center four stories below city hall. About 2,800 civilian
volunteers have been trained to help in emergencies.
To prepare young children psychologically, a "Quaky, Shaky"
van, which can mimic a tremor, is sent around to elementary
schools. The county's emergency plans will soon be put to a big
test. Sometime in the next few weeks, phone calls will go out to
emergency workers in 60 to 70 municipalities, informing them that
a magnitude 7 quake has occurred on the Newport-Inglewood fault.
"If we find out that people were not notified or don't know whom
to contact, we can correct the problem," says Bob Canfield, Los
Angeles' emergency-preparedness coordinator.
In the past, Los Angeles' sense of urgency about preparation
tended to end with the aftershocks of minor quakes. This time
promises to be different. Long after the news out of San Francisco
tapers off, Los Angeles will have a reminder. Earlier this year
Universal Studios opened an amusement park-style simulator that
shows how it feels to be tossed about by an 8.3 earthquake like the
one that flattened San Francisco in 1906. The ride is called
